Passing anecdotes and thoughts on politics, history, lit, sports or whatever...

Tuesday, February 21, 2006


What are the odds that we will bomb Iran this March? There are a few mitigating circumstances that could contribute to such an action. What will the consequences be? Far reaching or immediate?

As we know, Iran is not particularly close to developing a nuclear weapon that it can use. Bush has said as much previously. The Israeli elections seem to be the biggest variable that will determine a course of action. The incumbent, Olmert, might want to show that he is tough on Iran. Netanyahu of the Likud party, likely challenger, has stated that a nuclear Iran is not an option. I feel that Iran going nuclear is non-negotiable for Israel; they will not allow their leverage to deteriorate in this way. To rush any action, based on this variable, would be a political move and a disaster.

There is also the creation of the Iranian Bourse: a stock exchange for securities trading. This will end, or damage, the hegemony that the petrodollar has enjoyed. Most left wing critics site this as the most likely cause of any military action as the actual production of nuclear weapons are years away. Saddam was trading oil in petroeuros as well; critics have also interpreted that US military aggression was triggered by this action. The value of the dollar is inflated as countries need to use US currency to purchase oil. William Clark states, "In essence, the U.S. will no longer be able to effortlessly expand credit via U.S. Treasury bills, and the dollar's demand/liquidity value will fall. " This is problematic as we are increasingly running a monumental deficit.

If the USA uses tactical nukes, or arms Israeli bombers with them, Iran is likely to fire a hail of rockets at US bases and maybe into Europe. They could hit the green zone in Iraq, decapitating the US leadership there. Hezbollah is also Iranian backed and may be able to hit us at home; this might eventually lead to a full scale invasion/bombing/nuke attack on Iran. We can see where this is going.

I have seen predictions like this from the left before that turned out incorrect. The dynamic of the bourse leads me to believe that some action will be taken. The USA will generally go to war only if its economic interests are at play.


At 2:37 PM, Blogger Smacky said...

Your blog suffers from penis envy.

At 2:46 PM, Blogger Il_Duce said...

It is very small.


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